A site I frequent is "Contrarian Advisor". I don't know this gentleman but he sure seems to know what he posts about.
I thought his article today confirms some of my thoughts pretty well. So indstead of writing my own thoughts I thought I would share his.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
BROTHER HAVE YOU HEARD THE NEWS?
Fed cuts to ground zero, says "we'll buy anything", wild buying on Wall street ......VIX falls to 52 but hangs above 50 ish support. SRS plummets 20% (SHORT REAL ESTATE! ) homebuilders soar.....shorts scatter like bugs.but why can't I find any cheer here? why? Because prices are falling like it's 1930. Interest rates on long bond are at lowest level since?maybe ever....FED funds rate at level NEVER seen before at basically ZERO....."will use all measures at our disposal"They created current fiasco buy lowering rates to 1% during last Bear Market and now are going to fix everything and pump it back up by lowering them even further?So those who didnt get the money to borrow will now be able to do so or wnat to?BBY beats numbers but cuts capex by 50% ! I feel like the f'ing Grinch here.....Bussiness for lots of us is at a standstill. My own levels of business are CUT IN HALF from just one year ago and I see NO light at end of tunnel....just the train.What am I going to do? CUT OVERHEAD, CUT SPENDING....that's coming outta somebody's pocket.In this environment you gonna run out and buy a car or home? f no....and prices are FALLING if you wait....even further that's DEFLATION! Yet no one who has put fuel surcharge on me has taken it off and all those price increases from last year are still there.Today's move by the FED is pure DESPERATION, they are puking hairballs I dont care what they say.This I dont believe is the start of a new BULL MKT, and sure sometimes you have to just forget about fundamentals and go with the flow.When this flow stops, you dont want to be long. DAY after FED usually reverses course, have a great tomorrow and upcoming holidays....kiss your kids, tell all you love them....you are rich if you have that and your health, all else bets are off!